One moment please, we're crunching the numbers.

Burning coal, oil and gas produces greenhouse gases, namely CO2, that cause global warming. The warming provokes a raft of climate change risks such as weather extremes and sea level rise. Avoiding dangerous climate change means keeping the temperature increase within 2°C, and that means substantially reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

This is the mitigation challenge.

To meet that challenge, global annual emissions in 2025 need to be no more than 10% above 1990 levels and in 2030 they need to be around 1990 levels. This calls for collective action: each nation must contribute to the mitigation challenge.

A country’s mitigation contribution is how much it will reduce its annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 or by 2030.

This website provides graphical representations of mitigation contributions for each of the G20 countries and how they compare to the mitigation challenge. Our pie charts show world emissions, with individual slices of that pie representing countries in line with the colour code on this map.

Color Map

The website is based on independent scientific calculations underpinned by specific assumptions about the extent of the mitigation challenge, how to evaluate country contributions, and what it means to be a climate policy leader.

There are four steps involved in using this webtool:

  1. Select a country to explore.
  2. Select that country’s mitigation contribution.
  3. Choose the method by which all other countries calculate their comparably ambitious mitigation contributions .
  4. Discover whether global emissions are on track to stay below 2°C.

The data, methodology, assumptions and calculations are fully detailed in this Nature Climate Change publication.

Find free-to-use power point slides and additional information at the climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au website here.

Briefing Note Scientific Paper Discussion Forum Credits

Are we on track for 2°C?


GHG Emissions 2010

These are the current annual greenhouse gas emissions in gigatonnes (Gt) - each slice represents emissions from a different region or country.

2025

To stay within 2°C warming, 2025 global emissions need to be less...

2030

... and even less by 2030, namely back to 1990 levels. 1990 emissions were 22% below 2010.

I

II

Mitigation contribution

% below

levels by

Mitigation contribution

% below

levels by

Country name

Country description.

III

And lastly, select allocation approach


Leader

This approach is a combination of other approaches. One country adopts a leadership role as an ambitious early-mover. That leading country sets its own emissions reduction target. Every other country, guided by the leader’s target, adopts a commensurate target using either the Per Capita or Equal Cumulative Per Capita approach—each choosing the method that results in a more generous allocation for that country. The leader’s target must be ambitious enough that the collective outcome does not exceed 2°C.
Detailed methodology here.


Per capita

The approach is one of distributive justice. This method sees a straight-line projection drawn from the average per capita emissions calculated today to some convergence point in future. This point represents where the average per capita emissions need to be on that future date for the world to be on track with the 2°C target. All countries with emissions above the convergence line have to reduce their emissions linearly towards the convergence point, say 2050. All countries with emissions below the convergence line can continue to increase their emissions until they meet the convergence line, and then must follow it downwards.
Detailed methodology here.

Equal cumulative per capita, 1950

The approach is one of corrective justice. This method divides countries into three groups by their average per capita emissions: high, medium and low. All countries must stabilise at some future global average emissions per capita target level and year that puts the world on track for 2°C. However, before that, each country’s per capita emissions averaged from 1950 must become equal. Countries in the high emissions category reduce their emissions to balance past per capita emissions (this could mean negative emissions) then increase emissions to the target level. Countries in the medium category reduce emissions linearly to the target level and year. Countries in the low category increase emissions as projected but begin a ramp-down 10 years before the target year to meet the target level.
Detailed methodology here.

Equal cumulative per capita, 1990

The approach is one of corrective justice. This method divides countries into three groups by their average per capita emissions: high, medium and low. All countries must stabilise at some future global average emissions per capita target level and year that puts the world on track for 2°C. However, before that, each country’s per capita emissions averaged from 1990 must become equal. Countries in the high emissions category reduce their emissions to balance past per capita emissions (this could mean negative emissions) then increase emissions to the target level. Countries in the medium category reduce emissions linearly to the target level and year. Countries in the low category increase emissions as projected but begin a ramp-down 10 years before the target year to meet the target level.
Detailed methodology here.

Greenhouse Developments Rights

This approach, proposed by the Stockholm Environment Institute , is one based on countries' responsibility for historical emissions and capabilities to reduce future emissions. It uses an index to determine each country's share of the emissions reduction burden. A development threshold is set at individual incomes above $7500 per year. A country's responsibility is its cumulative emissions since 1990 from individuals above the development threshold. A country's capability is its income above the development threshold. The index is composed of both these factors equally weighted.
Detailed methodology here.

Leader & GLobal Development Rights

Combining the Leader and Greenhouse Development Rights approaches, one country adopts a leadership role as an ambitious early-mover. That leading country sets its own emissions reduction target. Every other country, guided by the leader’s target, adopts a commensurate target using one of three approaches—the Per Capita, Equal Cumulative Per Capita, or Greenhouse Development Rights—each choosing the method that results in a more generous allocation for that country. The leader’s target must be ambitious enough that the collective outcome does not exceed 2°C.
Detailed methodology here.

Results

2010

 

How to read the data

The table lists all the countries analysed on this website plus the remaining EU 28 countries. It also lists remaining countries grouped into ten world regions, plus international transport and the world as a whole.

The first column shows greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 in million metric tons of CO2 equivalent per year (MtCO2 eq/yr) (including land-use related emissions).

The second and third columns show, for each country or region, the percentage reductions below 2010 levels commensurate with your proposed mitigation contribution, for the target year and allocation approach that you selected.

These figures correspond to the middle pie chart.

Where the pie wedges are smaller than the grey area, the emissions of that country are less than they were in 2010. Where the wedge is larger, covering the grey area, the emissions are more than they were in 2010.

The fourth and fifth columns show, for the target year and allocation approach that you selected, what mitigation contributions would be required to meet the global mitigation challenge of 2°C. For 2030 this means global emissions at 1990 levels (which is 22% below 2010 levels). For 2025 this means global emissions no more than 10% above 1990 levels (which is 14% below 2010 levels).

These figures correspond to the last pie chart.

Download table    Download pie graphs as image    Download time series as image